【序】自2020年以来，新冠疫情给全球带来的冲击是人类史上的又一次巨大挑战。如何在大灾面前尽可能地减少损失、恢复经济和回归生活常态，是各国政府共同致力的目标。纵观历次危机，各国政府不乏都不同程度地采取了较为宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策，通过投放大量流动性以挽救市场的下跌。本次疫情各国政府的救市举措对传统的经济学理论也带来了一定挑战，如美国自疫情暴发以来采取一系列财政和货币政策，带来政府债务的大规模上升，就引起了市场很大的关注和争议，而且后期的实际效应还有待进一步观察。其中，本文中所提到的，后疫情时期的经济反弹速度及其受损面都是历次危机后最为关注的内容，而这些与“在经济衰退期带来企业收入、利润减少，裁员和债务偿还能力的下降；居民收入减少，导致消费缩减、在银行的家庭不良贷款增加。最终企业和家庭的资产负债表受损，导致经济增长的停止或下滑，以及经济发展质量的下降”的程度息息相关。如何在危机过程中尽快走出此怪圈，并在短期内能快速恢复经济、长期有益于经济主体下一步的健康发展，是危机期间不同政策组合有效性的一大考验。通过本文的分析，只是一个提供理性思考的视角。

　　The U.S. economic recovery is unlike any in recent history， powered by consumers with trillions in extra savings， businesses eager to hire and enormous policy support. Businesses and workers are poised to emerge from the downturn with far less permanent damage than occurred after recent recessions， particularly the 2007-09 downturn.

　　美国经济复苏是由储蓄丰厚的消费者、招聘需求强烈的企业及巨额的政策支持来推动的，这在历史上是前所未有的。企业和员工从经济衰退中恢复后受到的永久性损伤，较以前的经济衰退少了很多，尤其是与2007-2009年经济危机相比。

　　New businesses are popping up at the fastest pace on record. The rate at which workers quit their jobs -- a proxy for confidence in the labor market -- matches the highest going back at least to 2000. American household debt-service burdens， as a share of after-tax income， are near their lowest levels since 1980, when records began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up nearly 18％ from its pre-pandemic peak in February 2020. Home prices nationwide are nearly 14％ higher since that time.

　　新的企业正在以前所未有的速度涌现。作为就业市场信心参考指标的员工辞职率达到了2000年以来的最高值。美国家庭债务负担相当于税后收入的比值达到了自1980年有记录以来的最低水平。道琼斯工业指数自2020年2月疫情前的高点已经又上涨了近18％。全国房价从那时起也上涨了近14％。

　　The speed of the rebound is also triggering turmoil. The shortages of goods， raw materials and labor that typically emerge toward the end of an expansion are cropping up much sooner. Many economists， along with the Federal Reserve， expect the jump in inflation to be temporary， but others worry it could persist even once reopening is complete.

　　经济的快速反弹也引发了未来不确定的担忧。商品、原材料和劳动力的缺乏通常出现在经济扩张后期，但现在却早早出现了。很多经济学家和美联储一样都期待着通胀的上升是暂时的，但也有人担心即使在经济完全重启后高通胀依然存在。

　　"We've never had anything like it -- a collapse and then a boom-like pickup，" said Allen Sinai， chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics， Inc. "It is without historical parallel."

　　经济顾问公司Decision Economics的首席全球经济学家艾伦·西奈（Allen Sinai）说：“我们从未遇到过这种情况——衰退之后出现爆炸式反弹，历史上完全没有出现过这种情况。”

　　When Covid-19 pandemic restrictions sent the U.S. economy into free fall last spring， economists and policy makers worried it would take years for workers and businesses to heal. They now expect the economy's size to surpass pre-pandemic levels this quarter. Analysts project that by the end of this year gross domestic product will reach the path it was projected to follow had the pandemic never happened， and then exceed it， at least temporarily.

　　当新冠疫情使得美国经济在去年春季陷入低谷的时候，经济学家及决策者们都担心企业和员工需要花费数年才能恢复元气。现在他们却认为经济总量有望在本季度超过疫情前的水平。分析师预计，到今年底GDP的增长将达到疫情未发生时的水平，随后甚至会暂时超越这一水平。

　　图1 美国疫情前经济增速VS预测经济增速

　　The recoveries from the 1990-1991, 2001, and 2007-2009 recessions were "jobless": Weak demand reduced employers' need for labor， keeping unemployment stubbornly high for years. This time， however， the labor market appears increasingly tight. The employment cost index in the first quarter rose 0.9％ from the previous quarter， the sharpest increase since 2007. That's even though the unemployment rate， at 6.1％， remains far higher than before the pandemic.

　　1990-1991年、2001年、2007-2009年经济衰退后的复苏都伴随着“失业”：需求疲软导致企业用工需求减少，失业率多年维持在较高水平。但是这次的就业市场似乎十分紧俏。一季度的就业成本指数同比上升了0.9％，是2007年以来的最大涨幅。尽管目前失业率仍高达6.1％，远高于疫情前的水平。

　　The turn in fortunes has been head-spinning for a lot of businesses. At the Atlanta farm-to-table restaurant Miller Union， executive chef and co-owner Steven Satterfield can't hire fast enough to keep up with the sudden onslaught of business after months of struggle due to pandemic-triggered shutdowns. "It's a little unnerving because it just kind of came on really suddenly over the last several weeks，" he said.

　　时运的转变令许多企业都变得不知所措。亚特兰大一家餐厅Miller Union的行政主厨兼合伙人史蒂文·萨特菲尔德（Steven Satterfield）发现，在疫情导致的经济封锁引发了几个月的经营困难后，如今餐厅的招聘速度已经难以满足生意暴增的步伐。他说：“这让人感到有些不安，因为这就是在过去几周内突然发生的。”

　　A sustained rebound isn't assured， suggested by the slowing improvement of many economic measures in April. And a resurgence of Covid-19 in the U.S. could derail it entirely.

　　从四月份许多经济措施的缓慢改善，可以看出持续的经济反弹并不牢靠。如果美国新冠病例的再度激增，可能使得之前的改观完全失控。

　　Nonetheless， economists point to four key ways the current recovery differs from its predecessors:

　　尽管如此，经济学家还是指出了当前的经济复苏在四个方面不同于以往：

　　Natural vs financial disaster

　　自然灾害VS金融危机

　　Past recessions typically resulted from a rise in interest rates or a decline in asset values that hurt output， income and employment， sometimes for more than a year， said Gail Fosler， an economist and president of The GailFosler Group LLC. The damage to household finances and financial institutions after the 2007 housing crash led to lost demand that weighed on the economy for years.

　　战略咨询服务公司GailFosler Group的董事长兼经济学家盖尔·福斯勒（Gail Fosler）表示，此前的经济衰退通常是由加息或资产价值下降引发，由此导致的生产、收入及就业受损有时会长达一年以上。2007年房地产泡沫破灭对家庭及金融机构造成的冲击导致需求持续低迷，对经济的影响长达数年。

　　The Covid-19 recession， by comparison， didn't result from financial factors， but from a disruption akin to a natural disaster.

　　与之相比，新冠疫情引发的衰退并非源自于金融因素，而更接近于自然灾害。

　　"The pandemic created a shock that overwhelms the very concept of an economic cycle，" said Ms. Fosler.

　　福斯勒称：“疫情造成的冲击完全颠覆了所谓的经济周期概念。”

　　Natural disasters temporarily interrupt economic activity while leaving intact the underlying demand and supply of goods and services. Once the disaster passes， the economy recovers faster than with a typical recession. A 2018 study of individual tax returns of New Orleans residents found that after a large， initial blow from Hurricane Katrina， victims' incomes bounced back within a few years and even surpassed those of unaffected earners.

　　自然灾害会对暂时中断经济活动，但对潜在的供给和需求并不产生影响。一旦灾害过去，经济复苏的速度要比一般的经济衰退更快。2018年一项针对新奥尔良居民个人纳税申报的研究表明，在经历了卡特里娜飓风导致的巨大冲击后，受害者的收入在几年内得到了恢复，甚至超过了那些没有受到飓风影响的人。

　　In downturns， consumers fearful of losing their jobs or incomes often cut back on spending， amplifying the slump. This time， consumer spending in areas unaffected by lockdowns such as autos barely flagged， and to the extent that some consumers did hold back， it was more out of fear of the virus than fear of losing their jobs， a U.S. Census survey conducted throughout the pandemic suggests.

　　在经济低迷时期，消费者因担心丧失工作或收入而减少支出，从而加剧了经济衰退。美国的一项人口统计调查显示，这次在一些没有受到经济封锁措施的领域（例如汽车），并未实质上减少消费支出，而在某种程度上一些消费者确实减少了消费，更多是出于对于病毒的恐惧而非担心失去工作。

　　Widespread vaccination is containing the natural disaster by allowing consumers to spend more and businesses to reopen. In recent months， restaurant spending by vaccinated people has grown faster than that of the unvaccinated， according to market-research firm Cardify.ai.

　　疫苗的大规模接种能够使得消费者加大消费、商业重新开张，从而限制自然灾害造成的影响。市场调查机构Cardify.ai的数据显示，近几个月以来接种疫苗人群的餐饮消费增速明显超过未接种疫苗人群。

　　As more people get vaccinated， hiring is picking up. Analysis of census data by Aaron Sojourner， a labor economist at the University of Minnesota Carlson School of Management， found that for every 100 working-age people vaccinated， 12 are becoming newly employed， on average. Mr. Sojourner said that employment rates were rising more quickly in subpopulations that had faster growth in vaccination rates.

　　随着越来越多的人接种疫苗，企业招聘速度也在加快。来自明尼苏达州卡尔森管理学院的经济学家亚伦·索杰纳（Aaron Sojourner）开展的调查显示，每100个接种疫苗的适龄劳动人口中，平均有12人找到了新的工作。索杰纳称，在疫苗接种率较高的人群当中，就业率增长明显更快一些。

　　At Miller Union， the Atlanta restaurant， sales fell 90％ last spring from pre-pandemic levels， said Mr. Satterfield. "There were many times where we thought...'Maybe this is it， maybe we've got to just call it，' " he said.

　　萨特菲尔德说：“去年春天我们餐厅的营业额较疫情前下降了90％。有好多次我们都在想，或许还能支撑下去吧，或许我们该关门了。”

　　The restaurant received a federal Paycheck Protection Program loan last summer that kept it afloat. But it wasn't until this spring that the tide turned， as warmer weather and higher vaccination rates spurred more business. Some customers have come in sporting their vaccination stickers and saying their trip to Miller Union is the first outing in more than a year.

　　这家餐厅因在去年夏天得到了联邦薪资保障计划下的贷款而得以存活。但是直到今年春天情况才开始好转，天气转暖及疫苗接种率的提升带来了更多的生意。一些顾客带着他们的接种证明过来消费，并称这是他们一年多以来第一次外出就餐。

　　"There's a confidence and a boldness now， post-vaccination， that wasn't there before， for sure，" Mr. Satterfield said. Sales are already back to pre-pandemic levels.

　　萨特菲尔德说：“在接种过疫苗之后，人们现在变得更有信心、更大胆了，这是之前不曾有的。餐厅的营业额现在已经回到疫情之前的水平了。”

　　Usually in the months or years after a recession， the labor market remains slack as job seekers vastly outnumber job openings. High unemployment and weak wage growth hinder consumer spending and discourage businesses from expanding. The longer it takes for spending to rebound， the greater the risk that businesses will fold and workers will leave the labor force， taking with them the human and organizational capital needed to restore growth.

　　通常在经济衰退后的几个月或几年里，劳动力市场依然低迷，因为求职者的数量远远超过了职位空缺。高失业率和疲软的工资增长阻碍了消费者支出及企业扩张。支出反弹所需的时间越长，企业倒闭的风险就越大，员工也会离职，从而带动企业恢复增长所需的人力和组织资本的增加。

　　The economy appears to be dodging that vicious cycle. "The fact that it has recovered so quickly has limited the scope for a lot of scarring relative to， say， in the Great Recession，" said Stephanie Aaronson， an economist at the Brookings Institution.

　　当前的经济似乎正在远离这种恶性循环。布鲁金斯学会的经济学家斯蒂芬妮·阿伦森（Stephanie Aaronson）说：“相对于大萧条时期，经济复苏如此迅速，限制了很多创伤可能产生的范围。”

　　Monetary and fiscal policy

　　货币和财政政策

　　The coronavirus brought about a faster and bigger monetary and fiscal response than in any previous recession， limiting damage to the economic system and setting the stage for a faster recovery.

　　与以往任何一次经济衰退相比，新冠疫情引发货币和财政反应更加迅速、规模也更大，限制了疫情对经济系统造成的损害，并为更快的经济复苏奠定了基础。

　　The Federal Reserve cut rates， initiated large-scale bond purchases and outlined a new commitment to keeping interest rates near zero until full employment had returned and inflation was headed above its 2％ target. Officials say that rates may not rise until 2024. The Fed's balance sheet surged from $4.2 trillion in early March of 2020 to nearly $7.1 trillion by late May； the increase was less than $1.3 trillion during the previous recession.

　　美联储采取的降息、大规模的债券购买计划，并承诺在就业充分恢复及通货膨胀率高于其2％的目标之前，将利率维持在接近于零的水平。美联储的官员们说，利率在2024年之前可能都不会上升。美联储的资产负债表从2020年3月初的4.2万亿美元飙升至5月底的近7.1万亿美元，而在上一次经济衰退期间，这一增幅还不到1.3万亿美元。

　　Congress acted faster than in previous downturns. It shored up business and household balance sheets through multiple rounds of stimulus payments， expanded unemployment benefits and the Paycheck Protection Program. Congress's fiscal response to the Covid-19 pandemic will amount to $5.1 trillion， or 4.4％ of gross domestic product through 2024, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. By comparison， stimulus legislation enacted in the wake of the 2007-09 recession cost roughly $1.8 trillion， or 2.4％ of GDP between 2008 and 2012.

　　国会的行动比以前的经济衰退时更快。国会通过多轮经济刺激计划、扩大失业救济和工资保障计划来支撑起企业和家庭的资产负债表。据联邦预算委员会称，到2024年，国会针对新冠疫情的财政支出将达到5.1万亿美元，相当于GDP的4.4％。相比之下，在2007-2009年经济危机之后颁布的刺激性法案，花费了大约1.8万亿美元，相当于2008-2012年GDP的2.4％。

　　The upshot is that household incomes are up substantially from pre-pandemic levels， especially for lower-earning families， said James Knightley， chief international economist at ING. Unemployment beneficiaries now receive $300 above regular benefits， compared with $25 in the 2007-09 recession. A University of Chicago study found 42％ of beneficiaries received more income than at their previous jobs.

　　ING首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利（James Knightley）说，其结果是家庭收入水平比疫情前大幅提高，低收入家庭尤其如此。失业者现在比正常福利多领取300美元，而在2007-2009年经济危机中只有25美元。芝加哥大学的一项研究发现，42％的失业者获得的收入比他们之前工作时还要多。

　　"This is very different to any previous recession，" said Mr. Knightley. "Consequently， we have got a situation where household balance sheets are very strong and this can fuel sentiment and spending for quite some time."

　　奈特利说：“这次衰退与以前的任何一次都完全不同。因此现在的情况是，家庭资产负债表非常强劲，这可以在相当长的一段时间内提振信心和消费支持。”

　　The size of the aid programs has its critics. Many Republican lawmakers opposed President Biden's March $1.9 trillion stimulus package， arguing it widened the deficit unnecessarily given the strength of the recovery and the scale of the previous rescue package. The U.S. government ran a $1.9 trillion deficit from October through April， a record for the seven-month period， according to the Treasury Department.

　　援助计划的规模受到了一些批评。许多共和党议员反对拜登总统3月份提出的1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划，认为当前经济复苏力度和先前的大规模救市计划，该方案不必要地扩大了赤字。根据财政部的数据，美国政府从去年10月到今年4月，有了1.9万亿美元的财政赤字，为七个月以来的最高水平。

　　Republicans and some economists also argue the $300 unemployment top-off is deterring workers from taking new jobs. A growing number of Republican-led states plan to cut the extra benefits before they expire in September. The Biden administration has defended the expanded jobless benefits， saying other factors are deterring work searches， such as lack of full-time child care and fear of the pandemic.

　　共和党人和一些经济学家还认为，300美元的失业补贴正在阻止工人接受新的工作。共和党领导的州有很多都计划在9月到期之前削减额外的福利。拜登政府为扩大的失业救济金进行了辩护，称其他因素阻碍了找工作的进程，如全职儿童看护的缺乏和对新冠疫情的恐惧。

　　The fiscal measures have shattered the usual link between employment on the one hand， and incomes and spending on the other.

　　财政措施打破了就业与收支之间通常存在的联系。

　　When Lauree Sheppard， 44 years old， of Charlotte， N.C. was laid off from her dental-assistant job at the end of 2019, she began seeking a new career. She finished a truck-driving class in January 2020 and started shooting out her résumé to prospective employers. But no one was hiring.

　　北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市44岁的劳瑞·谢泼德（Lauree Sheppard）在2019年底从牙科助理的职位上被解雇，随后她开始找新的工作。她在2020年1月完成了一个卡车驾驶课程，并开始向未来的雇主投递简历。但没有人雇用她。

　　She collected expanded unemployment insurance， food stamps and all three rounds of stimulus checks. The aid helped keep food on the table while her husband—who also lost his job—picked up food-delivery gigs. “If I did not have any of the help with food stamps or the unemployment benefits， we would’ve ended up being homeless，” she said.

　　她领取了失业保险、食品券和所有三轮刺激计划中发放的支票。这些援助帮助她维持了温饱，而她失去了工作的丈夫则做起了外卖配送的临时工作。她说：“如果没有食品券或失业福利的帮助，我们最终会无家可归。”

　　Instead， she was able to take a construction-safety certification course in the evenings and continue seeking work until she accepted a job as a truck driver at the Charlotte Douglas International Airport in September. She has since changed jobs and now has enough money to pay off her credit-card debt. “I’m finally debt free，” she said. “It’s a weight off my shoulders.”

　　相反，她能够在晚上参加建筑安全认证课程，并继续寻找工作，直到她在9月接受了一份在夏洛特道格拉斯国际机场当卡车司机的工作。此后，她又更换了工作，现在有足够的钱来偿还她的信用卡债务。她说：“我终于没有债务了，肩上的重担终于卸下来了。”

　　Healthier households and businesses

　　更加健康的家庭和企业

　　“Often recessions happen because of some sort of imbalance—we have too much housing or too much debt or too much inflation，” said Karen Dynan， an economics professor at Harvard University. When those imbalances start to reverse， the damage to the economy can build on itself， she said. Households and businesses rein in spending， which in turn depresses others’ incomes and leads to further cutbacks.

　　哈佛大学经济学教授凯伦·戴南（Karen Dynan）说：“经济衰退的发生往往是因为某种不平衡——我们有太多的住房、太多的债务或是太多的通胀。她说，当这些不平衡开始逆转时，对经济的损害会不断扩大。家庭和企业控制支出，这反过来又压低了其他人的收入，导致进一步的削减支出。

　　But few such imbalances existed when the pandemic hit， and fiscal and monetary support staved off broader damage. Households， banks and businesses are emerging in much sounder shape than after previous recessions， Ms. Dynan said.

　　但在新冠疫情暴发时几乎不存在这种不平衡，财政和货币政策支持避免了更大规模的冲击。戴南说，家庭、银行和企业要比以往经济衰退后有着更加健康的状态。

　　Saving often rises when recessions hit， as worried households forego purchases and cling to cash， but never this much. Americans were saving at an annualized rate of $2.8 trillion in April—twice as much as more than before the crisis， positioning them to spend lavishly as the economy reopens. That compares with a rate of $734 billion in June 2009, or about $909 billion in 2021 dollars.

　　在经济衰退时，因为家庭放弃购买并坚定地持有现金，居民储蓄往往会增加，但从来没有像今天这么多。4月份美国年化储蓄规模为2.8万亿美元——这是疫情前的两倍多，使得人们能够在经济重新开放时大肆消费。相比之下，2009年6月的储蓄规模为7340亿美元，或按2021年美元汇率计算约为9090亿美元。

　　While federal relief contributed to some of the surge， so did business restrictions that prevented spending on many services. Higher-wage Americans， who were shielded from the pandemic’s labor-market hit because they are more likely to work remotely， were able to accumulate savings.

　　联邦政府的救济是导致储蓄激增的部分原因，还有一部分原因在于限制服务支出的商业措施。工资较高的美国人由于更有可能远程工作而免受疫情对就业市场造成的冲击，他们能够积累更多的储蓄。

　　图2 美国家庭利息支出占税后收入的比值

　　The delinquent share of outstanding debt dropped to 3.1％ in the first quarter of 2021, the lowest since records began in 1999 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Equifax. That share compares with 5％ at the end of the 2001 recession and 11.1％ in 2009. This is in part thanks to forbearance offered through federal coronavirus relief and some lenders which protect borrowers’ credit records from missed or deferred payments.

　　根据纽约联邦储备银行和Equifax的数据，2021年一季度未偿债务不良率降至3.1％，这是1999年有记录以来的最低值。这一比率与2001年经济衰退结束时的5％和2009年的11.1％相比明显更低。这部分归功于联邦新冠救济措施中的延期还款政策，从而一些贷款机构维护借款人良好的信用记录。

　　A surge in startups signals growing confidence among businesses—even amid a wave of small business closures. Filings to start new firms among a subset of owners who tend to employ other workers exceeded 830,000 through early May， a 21％ increase over the same period in 2006, the next-highest year.

　　创业公司的激增表明企业的信心在增长——即使在小企业倒闭的浪潮中。截至5月初，倾向于雇用其他工人的业主申请注册新公司超过了83万家，比历史第二高的2006年同期增长了21％。

　　The financial sector also is in good health. Banks and other lenders were weighed down by bad loans for years in the aftermath of the 2007-09 recession. Now， financial institutions have loss-absorbing capital equal to 16.5％ of risk-weighted assets， the highest share since records began in 1996, and well above 12.3％ in 2006, the year before the financial crisis began， according to the New York Fed. They are thus poised to lend.

　　金融部门也处于良好的健康状态。在2007-2009年的经济危机之后，银行和其他贷款机构多年来被不良贷款所拖累。根据纽约联储的数据，金融机构现在的风险准备金相当于风险加权资产的16.5％，这是自1996年有记录以来的最高值，并远远高于2006年（金融危机开始前一年）的12.3％。因此，他们已经为贷款做好了准备。

　　Shortages， bottlenecks， inflationary risks

　　供给短缺、瓶颈及通胀风险

　　One downside of the fast recovery is that demand is bouncing back faster than supply can keep up， triggering bottlenecks and wage-and-price pressures that normally emerge years into a recovery.

　　经济快速复苏的一个缺点在于，需求反弹的速度超过了供给的速度，引发了供给瓶颈和工资及价格压力，而这些压力通常在复苏的几年后才会出现。

　　“The power of this spring surge， as I’m calling it， has caught most businesses by surprise，” said Carl Tannenbaum， chief economist at Northern Trust.

　　北方信托公司（Northern Trust）的首席经济学家卡尔·坦南鲍姆（Carl Tannenbaum）说：“我所称之为春潮的这股力量，让大多数企业都感到吃惊。”

　　Inflation often falls in recessions and early in recoveries， then slowly picks up as the expansion ages. This time， it is rebounding as the economy reopens. Consumer prices excluding food and energy soared 0.9％ from March to April， the sharpest one-month increase since 1982.

　　通货膨胀往往在经济衰退和复苏初期下降，然后随着扩张期的到来慢慢回升。这一次，通胀随着经济的重新开放持续回升。4月，不包括食品和能源在内的消费者价格环比上升了0.9％，这是自1982年以来最大幅度的单月增长。

　　Inflation is emerging earlier than in previous cycles and stronger wage growth could lead it to remain high， prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than markets expect， Mr. Knightley said. That could trigger a stock selloff， since currently heady valuations are based in part on extremely low long-term rates. It could also slow growth by dragging down interest rate-sensitive industries like housing.

　　奈特利说，与之前的周期相比，通货膨胀出现得更早，更加强劲的工资增长可能导致通货膨胀保持高位，促使美联储有可能比市场预期更早加息。这可能会引发股票抛售，因为目前较高的估值部分是基于极低的长期利率。这也有可能导致住房等对利率敏感的行业拖累增长。

　　The Fed will also be closely eyeing job growth， which was much slower-than-expected in April. Economists say lack of child care， fear of the virus and extra unemployment insurance are keeping many workers on the sidelines.

　　美联储还将密切关注就业增长，4月份的就业增长比预期的要慢得多。经济学家说，儿童看护的缺乏、对病毒的恐惧和额外的失业保险使许多工人处于观望状态。

　　Employers seeking to hire face a relatively small pool of available workers. Between April of last year and March of this year the number of job seekers per job opening plummeted from 5 to just 1.2, much swifter than after the previous two recessions.

　　招聘中的雇主面临着一个相对较小的人才库。从去年4月到今年3月，空缺职位平均求职者人数从5人骤降到1.2人，这一速度要比前两次经济衰退后快得多。

　　The employee count at Miller Union in Atlanta is down to 30 from 46 before the pandemic. Co-owner Mr. Satterfield is looking to hire in roles including server， dishwasher， prep cook and line cook. Job candidates appear to be going elsewhere， with so many other businesses opening at the same time， he said.

　　亚特兰大Miller Union餐厅的员工人数从疫情前的46人减少到了30人。萨特菲尔德正在招聘服务员、洗碗工、预备厨师和流水线厨师等职位。他说，由于同时有这么多企业开业，求职者似乎都去了其他地方。

　　To lure workers， Miller Union is offering bonuses to new kitchen staff hires who stay 90 days.

　　为了吸引求职者，该餐厅为新招聘的厨房工作人员提供奖金，只要他们能在这里工作超过90天。

　　The company is no longer advertising takeout family meals—which require workers to box and label packages of vegetables， roasted chicken and dessert—because it needs to focus on all the customers coming into the restaurant， Mr. Satterfield said. He recently decided to close Sundays because there was not enough staff to handle demand. The restaurant sometimes asks customers to be patient because food service is slower.

　　萨特菲尔德说，该餐厅不再重点宣传外卖家庭餐——这需要员工将蔬菜、烤鸡和甜点进行包装并贴上标签，因为它更需要关注所有走进餐厅的顾客。他最近决定周日关门，因为没有足够的员工来处理需求。餐厅有时会要求顾客耐心等待，因为上菜会比较慢。

　　“It’s kind of like we’re a machine that’s not well oiled yet，” he said. “It needs lots of oil in little places because we’ve gotten out of practice.”

　　他说：“我们有点像是一台还没有上好油的机器，在一些小地方需要很多油，因为我们已经有些生疏了。”